Better out than in

Continued US membership in the Paris Agreement on climate would be symbolic and have no effect on US emissions. Instead, it would reveal the weaknesses of the agreement, prevent new opportunities from emerging, and gift greater leverage to a recalcitrant administration.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3309


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Hydroclimate: Understanding rainfall extremes

Warming induced by greenhouse gases will increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, causing heavier rainfall events. Changing atmospheric circulation dynamics are now shown to either amplify or weaken regional increases, contributing to uncertainty in future precipitation extremes.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3305


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Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25% in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3296


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Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3287


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Biogeochemistry: Tracing carbon fixation

Land surface models show large divergences in simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle. Atmospheric observations of the tracer carbonyl sulfide allow selection of the most realistic models.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3295


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Ecohydrology: When will the jungle burn?

Fire weather indices are unsuited to forecast fire in tropical rainforests. Now research shows the area burnt across Borneo is related to drought-depleted water tables, presenting the opportunity to predict fire danger in these environments.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3284


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Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

Atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska, together with coupled atmospheric transport and terrestrial ecosystem models show a declining spring net primary productivity response to temperature at high latitudes.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3277


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Biochar built soil carbon over a decade by stabilizing rhizodeposits

The long-term efficacy of biochar as a means of increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) remains underexplored. Research now shows that 8.5 years after biochar was added to a subtropical soil the formation of microaggregates stabilized and increased SOC.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3276


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Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

Limiting average global warming to 2 °C will not limit regional warming to the same levels. This study shows drylands have warmed, and will continue to warm, more than the humid lands that are primarily responsible for emissions.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3275


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Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

Nile basin countries are expected to double their population by 2050. Observations and climate model projections now suggest water resources may be additionally stretched by a 50% (±35%) increase in interannual Nile flow variability in the twenty-first century.

Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate3273


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